UPDATED Aug. 31, 2024, at 9:13 AM
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Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
KEY
ESTIMATE
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE
Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
| Dates | Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Sponsor | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Result |
President: general election, 2024AVG.
Aug. 25-29 | 2,191 | LV | Aug. 25-29 2,191LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 44% Kennedy 4% Stein 1% West 1% Oliver 0% | 44% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
50% Harris 44% Trump 4% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% West 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 25-29 | 2,191 | LV | Aug. 25-29 2,191LV | Harris | 53% | Harris | 53% | Harris 53% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
Aug. 26-28 | 2,441 | LV | Aug. 26-28 2,441LV | Napolitan Institute | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
Aug. 25-28 | 1,000 | LV | Aug. 25-28 1,000LV | USA Today | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 43% West 2% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
48% Harris 43% Trump 2% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 24-28 | 1,500 | RV | Aug. 24-28 1,500RV | The Wall Street Journal | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
Aug. 24-28 | 1,500 | RV | Aug. 24-28 1,500RV | The Wall Street Journal | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 45% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
47% Harris 45% Trump 1% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 23-28 | 1,238 | LV | Aug. 23-28 1,238LV | Harris | 57% | Harris | 57% | Harris 57% Vance 39% | 39% | Vance | Harris | +18 | |||
Aug. 23-28 | 1,238 | LV | Aug. 23-28 1,238LV | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +6 | |||
Aug. 23-28 | 1,511 | LV | Aug. 23-28 1,511LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 43% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +7 | |||
Aug. 23-28 | 1,681 | RV | Aug. 23-28 1,681RV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 42% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +6 | |||
Aug. 23-28 | 2,020 | A | Aug. 23-28 2,020A | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 39% | 39% | Trump | Harris | +6 | |||
Aug. 23-28 | 1,511 | LV | Aug. 23-28 1,511LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 41% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% | 41% | Trump | Harris | +7 | |||
48% Harris 41% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 23-28 | 1,681 | RV | Aug. 23-28 1,681RV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 40% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% | 40% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
45% Harris 40% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 23-28 | 2,020 | A | Aug. 23-28 2,020A | Harris | 42% | Harris | 42% | Harris 42% Trump 37% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% | 37% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
42% Harris 37% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 21-28 | 4,253 | A | Aug. 21-28 4,253A | Reuters | Harris | 40% | Harris | 40% | Harris 40% Trump 36% Kennedy 6% Oliver 1% Stein 1% West 1% | 36% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
40% Harris 36% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% Oliver 1% Stein 1% West | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 21-28 | 3,562 | RV | Aug. 21-28 3,562RV | Reuters | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 41% | 41% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
Aug. 21-28 | 4,253 | A | Aug. 21-28 4,253A | Reuters | Harris | 41% | Harris | 41% | Harris 41% Trump 38% | 38% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
Aug. 21-28 | 3,562 | RV | Aug. 21-28 3,562RV | Reuters | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 40% Kennedy 6% Oliver 1% Stein 1% West 0% | 40% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
44% Harris 40% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% Oliver 1% Stein 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 26-27 | 1,094 | LV | Aug. 26-27 1,094LV | TrendingPolitics TrendingPolitics is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
Aug. 25-27 | 1,368 | RV | Aug. 25-27 1,368RV | The Economist | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 45% Stein 1% West 0% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
47% Harris 45% Trump 1% Stein 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 23-27 | 1,611 | LV | Aug. 23-27 1,611LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
Aug. 23-27 | 1,611 | LV | Aug. 23-27 1,611LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 47% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
49% Harris 47% Trump 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 22-26 | 1,200 | RV | Aug. 22-26 1,200RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 42% Kennedy 6% Stein 1% Oliver 1% West 0% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
44% Harris 42% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 22-26 | 1,788 | A | Aug. 22-26 1,788A | Yahoo News | Harris | 39% | Harris | 39% | Harris 39% Trump 36% Kennedy 7% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 36% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
39% Harris 36% Trump 7% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 22-26 | 1,197 | RV | Aug. 22-26 1,197RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
Aug. 22-26 | 1,194 | RV | Aug. 22-26 1,194RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 45% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
46% Harris 45% Trump 1% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 20-26 | 2,626 | RV | Aug. 20-26 2,626RV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 43% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
Aug. 23-25 | 7,818 | RV | Aug. 23-25 7,818RV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 44% | 44% | Trump | Harris | +4 | |||
Aug. 23-25 | 863 | LV | Aug. 23-25 863LV | National Post | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
Aug. 23-25 | 908 | A | Aug. 23-25 908A | National Post | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
Aug. 23-25 | 856 | LV | Aug. 23-25 856LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
Aug. 23-25 | 929 | RV | Aug. 23-25 929RV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 43% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +4 | |||
Aug. 23-25 | 1,031 | LV | Aug. 23-25 1,031LV | Biden | 46% | Biden | 46% | Biden 46% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +4 | |||
Aug. 23-25 | 1,031 | LV | Aug. 23-25 1,031LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 48% Stein 1% West 1% Oliver 1% | 48% | Trump | Even | ||||
48% Harris 48% Trump 1% Stein 1% West 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 23-25 | 1,031 | LV | Aug. 23-25 1,031LV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 45% Kennedy 4% Stein 1% Oliver 1% West 0% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
47% Harris 45% Trump 4% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% West | |||||||||||||||
Aug. 23-25 | 1,031 | LV | Aug. 23-25 1,031LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
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Candidate is an incumbent
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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.
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Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
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Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Polling averages by G. Elliott Morris. Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Irena Li, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan, Geoffrey Skelley and Julia Wolfe contributed research. Editing by Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Copy editing by Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Alex Kimball, Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan, Maya Sweedler and Curtis Yee.
