Kena Solutions on LinkedIn: Happy Summer Solstice “The secret to success is figuring out how close… (2024)

Mortgage demand flattens even as interest rates hit the lowest level since MarchConsumers seemed unimpressed by the latest drop in mortgage rates. Total mortgage application volume rose just 0.9% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.94% from 7.02%, with points decreasing to 0.61 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the lowest level since March.Despite the drop, refinance demand, which is usually sensitive to weekly rate moves, dropped 0.4% for the week but was 30% higher than the same week one year ago. Rates are still slightly higher than they were a year ago.Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 2% for the week and were 12% lower than the same week one year ago. Home sales have slowed even more recently amid volatile interest rates. The supply of homes for sale remains lean, and prices are still high.Purchase volume is still more than 10% behind last year’s pace, but MBA is forecasting a pickup in home sales for the remainder of the year as more inventory is hitting the market,- CNBC

6

The U.S. cricket team's dream run continues.Aftertriumphing over Canada and Pakistan, and gaining points in a washed-out match against Ireland, due to torrential rain in Fort Lauderdale, the U.S. cricket team has progressed to the second stage of theICC Men's T20 Cricket World Cup 2024: the Super 8s.Vice captain of the U.S. cricket team, Aaron Jones, in a post-match press conference last Friday said that for the U.S. to qualify for the Super 8s was "a big thing for us.""Over the last couple of years, we've been speaking about playing in the World Cup, playing more games against the former member nations," Jones said. "And here we are doing it right now. Qualifying for the Super 8s is really good. It's a big thing for us."“And not only for us, but [for] fans around America as well," he added. "We really appreciate them." - USA Today

10

Whose Money Is It Anyway — People are talking with their wallets “Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting back”Sales at US retailers rose last month at an unexpectedly weak pace as Americans continue to deal with still-high inflation andelevated interest rates.Retail sales rose just 0.1% in May from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. That’s better than April’s downwardly revised 0.2% decline but below the 0.3% gain economists projected in a FactSet poll. The figures are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation.Inflation is down from the 40-year highs of two years ago, but it remains elevated.Meanwhile, interest rates are at their highest in nearly a quarter century after the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022 to rein in price hikes. Household savings accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic are dwindling, and may have already been exhausted.Spending is cooling back towards a more sustainable pace,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN’s Matt Egan in an interview. “It’s important we don’t confuse a slower pace of spending with the economy turning over, because that’s clearly not happening.” - CNN#whosemoneyisit#kenasolutions#retailsales#inflation

7

In God We Trust, all others pay cashInvestors were keeping a keen eye on retail sales and so were a little gun shy.“Stocks opened with minor gains Tuesday, as Treasury yields fell in response to a weaker-than-expected rise in May retail sales.Investors slightly nudged up expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve to around 67%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, after data showed May sales rose just 0.1% versus a consensus forecast for a 0.2% rise. Previous sales were also revised down.” - MarketWatch.In the continuing saga of its “tech not the economy” that’s driving the market, Nvidia continues to test its upper limits, while its neighbors are experiencing a very nice coat tail effect.This theory will be put to the test as there are a number of pretty important economic data releases due out this week. Down the Shore, like the market, we got off to a limited visibility start to the day.If these two stay in lockstep, we are expecting a very hot, sunny afternoon!But remember, market are closed tomorrow, and shortened trading weeks have minds of their own.Make it a great day.

7

Why Americans are so frustrated with the economy right nowConsumers are increasingly stretched. Pandemicsavingsare depleted.Wage gainsare slowing.Household debtis rising rapidly. Heightened debt levels and interest rates mean that consumers are spending more on interest payments, with less left for goods and services.Also, more households find it difficult to service and repay debt, especially those who have already maxed out their credit cards.Delinquenciesare rising, and about a third of maxed-out borrowers have fallen behind in their payments over the last year, according to theNew York Federal Reserve.With inflation persisting, interest rates likely to stay higher for longer and lingering anxiety about the future, it is no surprise that consumers have become more cautious.Retail salesstagnated in April, actually declining month-over-month after adjusting forinflation.Spendingon cars, sporting goods andat restaurants was notably weak.Overall, even if consumers’ ability and willingness to spend remain under duress over the coming months, we do not expect a contraction that would drag the economy into a recession.As the economy slows in the months ahead, we expect inflation to continue decelerating and gradually normalize at the Fed’s 2% target in 2025. Against this backdrop of lower inflation and growth, we expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates toward the end of 2024 — providing some relief to debt-ridden consumers. - CNN#economy#inflation#interestrates#kenasolutions

13

Here Comes Summer —Looks like it’s gonna be a scorcher!Stock futures were flat this morning as traders took stock of where “we at” and the barrage of economic releases due out in a trading shortened week.I’m tired even typing that. I have the feeling that “the living ain’t going to be easy this summer.” (Sorry Ella). Looking ahead, it appears that we could be in a two horse race, “the secular AI theme and then one has been this idea of manufacturing, reshoring and, frankly, continued strong economic growth, according to CNBC. These are not new themes, but they have outpaced the nest of the field and are now where you should place your bets. AI, a victim of its own success, continues to be the bellwether for all things tech future and while the wealth is being shared and picked up by other companies, the question of breath continues to loom large. On the economic front “good new is bad” may be taking a turn for the better as the economy continues to show more sustainable growth patterns.The market slept through all of the above ramblings and fell out of bed on this fine Monday morning, what a kill joy.“If inflation falls because growth is slowing, that’s not an automatic positive for stocks anymore and we saw that this past week as sectors and stocks that weren’t attached to AI declined, despite the drop in CPI and rising Fed cut expectations,” according to MarketWatch.Down the Shore, unlike the market, we are adopting the following “If you are not in flip flops, you are overdressed.”There is a string of “Abby”Normally hot days in the forecast for this week, so we are taking advantage of what’s here today. Make it a great day.

7

The Week That Was — If Frogs had wings they wouldn’t bump their Asses every time they jumpedAnd if you strip out all the ifs and fingers crossed for what needs to go right for the Fed to make a move, it would all come back to the same place — shelter.The rest is just noise.This is the first monthly bill the Average Joe pays, and the last outlier on what can be reined in improve the inflation picture."The rate environment is not looking good. That's something that might keep the trend sticky, because mortgage rates are high and it's not looking like they're changing anytime soon," Sheharyar Bokhari, Redfin senior economist, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.At its June policy meeting, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate — which affects the direction of mortgage rates — steady andprojected just one rate cutthis year, down from a previous forecast of three. - Yahoo Finance. There’s a slew of housing related data due to be released next week and hopefully that might give some clarity on some of the ifs. I’m not suggesting that’s it’s going to get the Fed off the dime. But it will add another data point. I know that without 'Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion', W. Edwards Deming, but I also feel there comes a point in time when your gut is your best friend.

7

USA’s biggest cricket star kept his full-time tech job while leading his team to triumphsComing off a shocking win against the Pakistani national cricket team, a young Team USA is on the rise in the cricket world. This week, after a scheduled match against Ireland was rained out, USA advanced to thesecond round of the T20 World Cupfor the first time. At the helm of this explosive success is Saurabh Netravalkar, a 32-year-old bowler who, while leading Team USA to triumphs, has kept his full-time day job as a principal engineer at the tech giant Oracle. He’s been known to bring his laptop to the stadium, taking work calls and coding when he has a moment between matches,accordingto The Athletic.“Congrats @USACricket on a historic result,”Oracle postedon X. “Proud of the team and our very own engineering and cricket star.”Netravalkar was born in Mumbai, India, and played for the country’s junior leagues growing up. He rubbed elbows with many players who grew up to be India’s next cricket stars. But when that didn’t work out for him, The Associated Press reported, he came to the U.S., got a masters atCornell Universityin 2015 and settled in the Bay Area.- CBS News#INDvsPAK#T20WorldCup2024#CWC2024#CricketWorldCup#TeamIndia#PakistanCricket#CricketFever#MatchDay#DesiCricket#Kenasolutions#LongIslandCricket

5

What you don't see backstage is what really controls the show. - Sarah SuttonInvestors are caught in a bit of a you “don’t try to catch a falling knife” scenario.A bleak premarket futures picture quickly morphed into a massive 300 point down run the exits on the open.The frustrating part of what’s happening is that it is not homegrown. (Is that still a thing in today’s world).The news out of France, leaked into the rest of Europe, and then into the water which brought it to our shores. Down the shore, like the market our ocean is affected by disturbances which take place hundreds of miles from us and all se can do is brace for it and then ride it out when it shows up. Right now, the sun is shining, but there’s heavy thunder in the afternoon forecast. Make it a great day. MarketWatchU.S. stocks slumped at the open Friday as a record-setting rally for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite appeared to cool, while stocks in Europe sold off on concerns tied to an upcoming snap election in France.Here is where the main U.S. indexes stood shortly after the open, with the Dow and small-cap stocks underperforming once again:The S&P 500 was down 19 points, or 0.4%, at 5,413.The Nasdaq Composite was down 63 points, or 0.4%, at 17,604.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off by 172 points, or 0.4%, at 38,528.The iShares Russell 2000 ETF was down $2.23, or 0.8%, at $199.67 a share.

6